ABSTRACT
PREDICTION OF CARBON EMISSIONS FROM TRANSPORTATION IN CHINA BASED ON THE ARIMA-LSTM-BP COMBINED MODEL
Journal: Science Heritage Journal | Galeri Warisan Sains (GWS)
Author:Noor Azalina Musa, Noor Haslinda Noor Hashim
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License CC BY 4.0, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited
Doi: 10.26480/gws.01.2024.13.21
Transportation is not only a significant force in promoting economic and social development but also one of the primary industries that consume energy and emit greenhouse gas emissions. In order to achieve China’s overall goal of reaching the carbon peak by 2030, this paper selects six influencing factors, such as population, GDP and urbanization rate, and proposes a combined prediction model based on ARIMA-LSTM-BP, which predicts transportation carbon emissions in China from 2022 to 2050 under three scenarios of low carbon, benchmark and high carbon. The results show that the peak emissions of transportation in low-carbon, benchmark and high-carbon scenarios are 1624.7732 million tons, 1478.1694 million tons and 1367.5417 million tons, respectively, reaching the peak in 2031, 2034 and 2039. It can be seen that in China, the transportation industry alone cannot achieve the goal of reaching the peak by 2030, and more measures need to be taken to achieve the carbon peak of the transportation industry as soon as possible.
| Pages | 13-21 |
| Year | 2024 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Volume | 8 |
